Lil Red Machine

Men who appear in these old school baseball cards cannot be of any positive benefit to a baseball team in 2009.  I have this old set, and few of the players still are active.  Most have long ago retired.  It would behoove Sheffield to do the same.  He offers precious little to anyone these days.  His body is breaking down.  Maybe if he didn’t have such a bad attitude, he could be a useful backup outfielder for someone, but I can’t see him being happy in that role.

He’s also becoming increasingly delusional.  In his own words, he was the most athletic player on the Tigers.  Keep in mind, he’s 40 years old.

The Reds have made a committment to get younger and more athletic.  Signing Sheffield would be a step in the wrong direction, for the reasons listed.  There is need for power off the bench, but they should go out and get a Geoff Jenkins, not this team cancer and injury prone drama queen.

The NL central, as a whole, is one of the weakest division in baseball.  You have the Cubs, you have a few teams that might push .500, and then you have dreck such as the Pirates.  I would be shocked if the wildcard were to come from this divsion.  Without further ado, here are my thought and predictions for the NL central *drumroll please*

1.  Cubs–They are the team to beat.  Everyone knows it, and I’m not going to try to pick someone else and be “trendy.”  They have a quality lineup with good veterans, they got another bat in the form of Milton Bradley, and their pitching staff is lead by a true horse in Carlos Zambrano, and they have the arms behind him that can handle the rigors of a 162 game season.  I remember a few years ago when they went out in free agency and spent a lot of money.  People thought that they were crazy, but that spending, plus the overall talent of the team, has kept them right in the thick of things.  They made good investments.  I guess my only concerns are that the lineup has some age issues (Derrek Lee and Alfonso Soriano) and they have an unproven closer in Carlos Marmol.  Also, there is talk of Zambrano showing some chinks in the armor.  In this division, though, those blemishes will be easy to overcome.  As for October, though………..

2.  Cardinals–I can never go against a team led by Tony LaRussa, and features the greatest player in the game by a country mile in the form of Albert Pujols.  With that said, this team could go either way.  Their older vets may have another run left in them, or they could age rapidly.  I’m not liking the middle of the infield pairing of Adam Kennedy and Khalil Greene.  The rotation is also very questionable.  Will Chris Carpenter be able to recover from recent injuries?  Kyle Lohse and Branden Looper are good enough to be major league starters, but I’m thinking that the Cardinals will be asking too much out of these guys.  I list all these concerns, but I pick them so high because they are always one swing away from winning a ballgame with the mighty bat of Pujols

3.  Reds–My team got younger, cheaper, and faster.  All the talk in spring training is that the group is showing an energy that prior Reds teams haven’t shown.  They need another power bat, and the organization needs to start emphasizing OBP more.  A lot of free swingers on here.  You guys already know my thought about them (read my Reds preview).  I just think that they are a year away, once some of those young guys mature and get better.

4.  Brewers–Losing C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets is a killer, but it’s hard to say that they will be THIS bad.  When the Twins lost Johan Santana, everyone expected doom and gloom, but the organizational depth that those guys have kept them relevant.  Maybe the same is true for the Brewers, but I think that losing quality arms like that will really hurt them.  They have some legit stars in Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, but guys like Ricke Weeks, and Bill Hall are question marks.  Getting Trevor Hoffman is a temporary bandaid, even though he’s not what he used to be.  This team is hard to pinpoint.  Will be be the NL version of the Twins, or completely disband like the Marlins?

5.  Astros–These guys got extremely lucky last year.  They pulled a rare trick in having a winning record, but getting outscored by the opposition.  This team just isn’t very good, and not only that, but the lineup is old, and outside of Roy Oswalt, the rotation is in shambles.  They need to rebuild in the worst way, but owner Drayton McClane keeps putting that off.  Arguably noone in the starting lineup is still in their prime, perhaps Lance Berkman being the exception.  Either that, or there are guys who just aren’t that good to begin with.  It’s gonna be a long year for Houston-and yes, you DO have a problem

5.  Pirates–Awful, awful team.  Their best players in the starting lineup (Nate McClouth and Ryan Doumit) would be complimentary players on just about any other team.  That’s not a knock on them.  They are fine players, but if they are your feature guys, you are in trouble.  Outside of Adam LaRoche, the entire starting infield is awful (and even LaRoche isn’t that great).  Same with the other outfielders that flank McClouth.  Reinforcements for the lineup are down in the minors and on their way, but they won’t take care of the present problem.  The pitching staff, outside of Paul Maholm, is terrible, and the bullpen is passable, but doesnt’ scare anyone.  This is probably the worst team in major league baseball.

The names listed below have all performed a very specific duty at one point or another for the Reds since their last winning campaign in 2000:

-Chris Dickerson, Jerry Hairston Jr, Corey Patterson, Jay Bruce, Jolbert Cabrera, Danny Richar, Joey Votto, Ryan Freel, Jeff Keppinger, Scott Hatteberg, Josh Hamilton, Brandon Phillips, Quinton McCracken, Felipe Lopez, Chris Denorfia, Royce Clayton, Dewayne Wise, D’Angelo Jimenez, Jermaine Clark, Eric Valent, Ray Olmedo, Barry Larkin, Sean Casey, Aaron Boone, Reggie Taylor, Juan Castro, Todd Walker, Brady Clark, Juan Encarnacion, Wilton Guerrero, Donnie Sadler, Pokey Reese, Deion Sanders, Alex Ochoa, and Michael Tucker

Give up on what it is they did?

These men have had their various turns batting leadoff for the Reds during the current streak of eight consecutive losing seasons.  You have some Reds legends in here (Barry Larkin), some very good current players (Votto, Bruce, and Phillips), and others who  are/were servicable/moderately good players (Keppinger, Boone, Casey, Freel, Hatteberg, etc).  A lot of those guys on the list were fringe players, though.  And to think, they were being positioned in the most important spot in the batting lineup.

Even the guys whom I gave props to, though, how many of them make you think “man, this guy is a prototypical leadoff hitter”?  Outside of Larkin, none of them (and he had trouble staying healthy in his latter years).  Some good cleanup hitters, or bottom of the lineup guys certainly, but the ugly truth is that the Reds haven’t had a good, consistent leadoff hitter in almost a decade to set the table for these guys.  Too many players were being misused, or just had no business being on a big league roster in the first place.

Willy Tavares, come on down!  You’re the next contestant to be a Reds leadoff hitter!  There are a few things about this guy that remind me of Corey Patterson: He has been used primarily as a leadoff hitter, and plays a speedy centerfield (which is a bit of an overrated thing in the bandbox known as Great American Ballpark), but does NOT get on base.  Only reached at a .306 clip last year.  Tavares says he wants to steal over 100 bases, but unless he finds a way to steal first, perhaps he ought to think of how to improve his batting eye before anything else.

I personally think that they didn’t correctly judge the free agent market.  They are paying him $6.25 million for the next 2 years.  The market really dried out towards the end of the year, and guys like Bobby Abreu, and Pat Burrell were getting contracts that the Reds could’ve easily affored had they not already jumped on Tavares early on in the game.  I think that they could’ve moved Dickerson to centerfield, and opened up left field for one of these big name sluggers.  They didn’t, though.  Tavares will get over 500 plate appearances, and if he doesn’t boost that OBP, then he may become just another name in a long list of name to lead off games for Cincinnati.

Only the diehards scan over the spring training statistics.  To say that “none of this matters” might be an understatement.  If you want proof, look at the results from last year.  Corey Patterson went from having a Ruthian-like spring training (.455 AVG, .545 SLG), to being one of the worst centerfielders that the Reds have ever had.  On the flip side, the best overall hitter on the Reds last season, Joey Votto, was putting up stats that a pitcher would be fairly satisfied to have in their batting line (.158 AVG, .262 SLG).

Lets fast forward to 2009.  Ryan Hanigan currently leads the team in batting average, as he’s hitting a robust .455 in 22 at-bats.  Hanigan is a nice backup to have around, but lets face it, many of those pitchers he’s hitting against as using this time of year to fine tune their current repetoire, or attempt new pitches.  Votto, Brandon Phillips, and Chris Dickerson, amongst the regulars, are also turning in fine spring training performances, but then you have Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion, regular who are struggling.  What to make of it?  It’s best not to look into it at all.  These guys don’t need spring training.  It’s helpful for team comrederie purposes, but any true pro has already spent a good portion of the offseason working on their game.  Spring training is mainly a chance for young guys to make an impression, and for fringe players to get one last shot at “the show.”  A guy like Johnny Gomes needs spring training.  A guy like Micah Owings needs it also.  Nothing is guaranteed for either, and so far, they are performing.

The good news it, from everything I have read, there is an energy in camp that hasn’t been there in years past.  This is one of the younger, more athletic Reds team in recent memory, and the focus is clearly on speed and defense, things which weren’t emphasized in years past.  So, ignore the results, observe as the pitchers try out new stuff, and hitters look at different pitches, and use this opportunity to watch the roster take shape.

Certainly, Adam Dunn has been one of the more polarizing figures in recent Reds history.  There really was no middle ground when it came to him.  His defenders supported him due to his high on-base-percentage, and his power.  His detractors pointed out his penchant for striking out a lot, his complete and total lack of mobility in the field and on the basepaths, and his tendencies to not perform situational hitting.

The big Texan, though, will be missed.  It wasn’t his fault that his era had the Reds trotted out starting pitchers such as Jimmy Haynes, Matt Belisle, Josh Fogg, Eric Milton, Brandon Claussen, and Danny Graves.  It wasn’t his fault that Ken Griffey Jr. couldn’t stay healthy, that they haven’t had consistent shortstop play since Barry Larkin retired–and even when he was there in Dunn’s first few years, he was hurt and overall, aged very badly.  Also, the man whom he was best friends with, Austin Kearns, never lived up to his potential, and was ultimately dealt to Washington.  That was supposed to be a 1-2 tandem for many years to come.  It was Dunn who held up his end of the bargain.

With all that, Dunn played everyday, never complained, and lived up to the hype that surrounded him when he was called up to the Reds in 2001.  However, the Reds put him front and center of their marketing campaigns, which made him a big target.  Dunn is simply not that kind of guy.  He is not a fiery leader, and any team which showcases HIM as the main guy probably isn’t going far.  Not a knock on him.  It’s a knock on the Reds for failing to put proper talent around this home run hitting, on-base machine.  If he is a supporting cast member of your team, then that’s fine.  That where he fits in best.  The Reds knew his limitations, and didn’t try to work around them.  They have had a revolving door of managers, all with their own different philosophies on how to play the game.  There has never been any consistency.

As A Dunn supporter, though, I do think that trading him was for the best.  Through little fault of his own, the situation wasn’t just working outing out for the team as a whole.  While he did have his shortcomings, and was never going to be part of the future going forward, as the Reds were in the midst of their eight consecutive losing season last year, he doesn’t deserve to be the scapegoat that many Reds fans have made him out to be.  Good luck replacing that production.

I have had the personal pleasure of seeing the Reds play in several different stadiums across the country.  Wherever I go, I see the same thing.  Usually, names such as FOSTER, BENCH, MORGAN, and pretty much anyone you can think of off those great big red machine teams are what you are seeing on the jerseys that the fans are wearing.  That’s all well and good, as the Reds have had a great history, but since their last world series appearance, the Reds haven’t done much, and haven’t given fans many reasons to wear the jerseys of the current players.  There are kids in junior high school now that were born the last time the Reds tasted the postseason in 1995 (if you don’t count the one game playoff against the Mets in 1999.  No winning seasons since 2000.  Your truly, who is 27 years old, was fresh out of high school when that event occured.

To get back on the right path, here are what the Reds need to have happen to them this year.  I would like a championship parade again sometime in my life, preferably before the point in my life where I would have to worry about breaking a hip from jumping with joy.

Luck- Before anything else, this is the most important thing.  Small market teams, like the Reds, cannot afford to have injuries to key contributors.  We can’t go out and readily get reinforcements, and with the lack of depth, the dropoff from starter to reserve at most positions is pretty severe.

All around offensive improvement–Obviously, you can’t win if you can’t outscore the other team.  They were 23rd in the league in total runs last year.  Why weren’t they outscoring the other team on a consistent basis?  Well, for starters, they were next to last in MLB in hits and batting average, 25th in on-base percentage, and 23rd in RBI’s.  They were 7th in home runs, but paired with the other numbers, that can only mean one thing:  Lots of solo home runs.  The long ball may be an exciting thing to observe, but the damage is minimal when there aren’t any other ducks on the pond.  Also, against good pitching, you can’t rely on that slugging style to always come through.  Situational hitting is very key to winning baseball.  Get ‘em on, get ‘em over, and get ‘em in, as they say.  There was very little of that in Cincinnati

Bounce back years from key vets–With Ken Griffey Jr. proving that one truly can return home, and Adam Dunn taking his act to the nations capital, the Reds will look to Brandon Phillips for leadership.  A finger injury cut his difficult season short last year.  He will need to resemble the 30/30 guy from 2007.

From the pitching rubber, Aaron Harang had a difficult year last season.  Harang has been a workhorse for Cincinnati, consistently piling over 200 innings a year.  Perhaps the wear and tear from that was his downfall in 2008.  However, Harang is still only 30 years old, so it’s not outside the realm of possibilities that he can return to pre-2008 form, but for the Reds to have any chance of success, he needs to be that guy again.

There are other veterans as well who didn’t perform up to their capabilities.  Closer Francisco Cordero and Edwin Encarnacion had tough years, but clearly, the guys highlighted are needed to be leaders.

Continued improvement from youngsters–It can be argued that, despite the mess of a season that the Reds had last season, that they really learned a lot about the true foundation of their team.  In the first half of the season, Edinson Volquez looked not only like a possible rookie of the year candidate, but a potential Cy Young Candidate as well.  Johnny Cueto performed brilliantly at times, Jay Bruce started off incredibly strong, and Joey Votto gave them good production as well, and possibly the most consistent production of the rookies.  A sophomore slump is probably for some of these players, especially Volquez, who really tailed off at the end of last year.  However, if he can avoid that, and Harang bounces back (as already mentioned), that can be a 1-2 punch that few teams in the national league can match up again.

In conclusion, that’s obviously a lot of “If’s.”  As the saying goes “if ands and buts were candy and nuts…….”  Forget how the rest of that goes, but the point still stands.  More than likely, a few of those things won’t happen, and the Reds will once again be a struggling teams.  However, unlike years past, there is a real sense of hope for the future.  Not at any point in recent memory have the Reds had such a strong core of young players to build around, and they have a GM in Walt Jocketty with a proven track record of success.  Not to mention, outside of the Cubs, there is a lot of turmoil in the national league central.  Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. were superstars who had box office appeal, but didn’t bring any success.  “If you aren’t part of the solution you are part of the problem.”  Right?  Well, the Reds have moved on, and now have a faster and younger club, one that can take a small step forward in 2009 and even bigger ones in the future.

For years, it has been a 2-man show in Cincinnati.  Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr, for better or for worse, not only led the team, but ran that clubhouse.  They were the clear cut superstars, the guys with the reputations and the box office attraction.  However, years of losing has led to the massive overhaul that began last July.  The Reds have gotten younger, cheaper, and better defensively.  Adam Dunn, for all he brought in terms of on-base percentage and home run power, was terrible at executing the fundamentals crucial to winning on a daily basis.  As for Griffey, he just got old in a hurry, and was only hitting meatballs down the middle of the plate.  He sold jerseys, but overall, it was a frustrating era for him and for Reds fans.

As the 2009 season approaches, the question that deserves to be posed is, who will be the leader?  They have some great young talent, but those guys are still too young at this point to really be leaders.  Other players are simply veteran fringe players, and are just stopgaps until the reinforcement from the minor leagues arrives.  And then you have Brandon Phillips.  He’s 27 years old, in his prime, and has the track record and personality to lead.

Depending on who you ask, though, Brandon Phillips is either a warm, engaging ballplayer with a friendly, bright smile and a penchant to hit the long ball, or a hardheaded, stuck-in-his ways low on-base percentage strike out machine that was dealt to Cincinnati in the first place by the Cleveland Indians because of a poor attitude.   His recent comments to the  Cincinnati Enquirer are rather worrisome.  Apparently, he thinks that OBP is an overrated stat. “I don’t believe that on-base percentage stuff. That’s overrated to me. If you get hits, you’ll be on base. That’s what it’s about.”

Quick, name the last team that has ever won anything when their best players couldn’t find alternative ways to reach base besides getting base hits?   Even in 2007, his best season, Phillips still only had an OBP of .331.  Last season, his production dropped off, and he also missed the last month of the season due to a finger injury.  He had an embarrasingly low OBP of .312.  Up and down the lineup, the Reds have a team full of high strikeout/low on base percentage guys.  They will follow his example, and these recent comments are an alarming sign that he still doesn’t get it.